01 September 2023
Generative AI will have revolutionary and transversal impacts on all economic sectors and all aspects of our society, changing how we interact with technology as well as how we consume and produce information and content. What, however, are the concrete economic and strategic impacts on Italy and its companies? What are the ethical risks and what are the obstacles preventing the full realisation of its potential in our country?
Answering these questions is the aim of the Study " AI 4 Italy: Impacts and Prospects of Generative Artificial Intelligence for Italy and Made in Italy", realized by The European House - Ambrosetti in collaboration with Microsoft Italia and presented today as part of The European House - Ambrosetti's 49th Cernobbio Forum, at a press conference attended by Vincenzo Esposito (Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft Italia) and one of the initiative's Scientific Advisors Giorgio Metta (Scientific Director, Italian Institute of Technology). The research aimed at analysing, from a pioneering and innovative perspective, the economic and social impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Italy, analysing its technological assumptions, and socio-ethical and policy implications.
The realisation of the Study relied on the robust evidence gathered in the direct interlocutions that the working group of The European House - Ambrosetti had with its network of Heads of Companies, starting from the members of the InnoTech Community. In addition to this activity of dialogue with selected stakeholders, it has been conducted a survey involving more than 100 companies that highlights from a quantitative perspective the orientations of the Italian system, with a specific focus on the opportunities, limitations, and prospects of Generative AI for Italy.
The research work also set out to census all the use cases of this revolutionary technology for Italian companies. Thanks to an unprecedented analysis activity, we have in fact surveyed 23 different types of use cases, distributed over 15 different economic sectors and 8 types of business processes. We have also quantified the impact this technology can have on productivity and growth.
Here the main key findings of the research work:
- Italy needs Generative AI to unlock productivity and counteract the adverse effects of an ageing population. In our country, Generative AI can become the key to maintaining a high level of productivity and well-being in the context of an increasing scarcity of talent and a general ageing population. In fact, Italy will lose about 3.7 million employees by 2040: a number of workers who, with current productivity levels, contribute to the production of about €267.8 billion in national GDP. New technologies will make it possible to maintain the same level of economic well-being.
- The concrete applications of Generative AI cut across all sectors: the question is not whether there will be an impact, but how big it will be. Currently, the financial, manufacturing and healthcare (and life sciences) sectors are the most mature markets for the use of Generative AI. The business processes that are benefiting most from this, through more efficient management of big data, are R&D, design, manufacturing, and supply chain.
- The productivity of the Italian economy could increase by up to 18% thanks to the adoption of Generative Artificial Intelligence. Generative AI is a technology of revolutionary scope that, in our country, can generate, for the same number of hours worked, up to 312 billion euros of added value annually, equal to 18% of Italian GDP. Maintaining constant the added value generated, the use of Generative AI tools will release a total of 5.4 billion hours, which corresponds to the total number of hours worked in a year by 3.2 million people.
- Generative AI poses several socio-ethical risks: therefore, a responsible approach needs to be developed, characterised by transparency, reliability, security and fairness.
- To seize all the opportunities of Generative Artificial Intelligence, Italy must stimulate the digitisation of businesses, with particular attention to small and medium-sized ones, and develop the appropriate skills. According to the research, to reap the benefits estimated by the impact model (18% of GDP), it is necessary to accelerate the digitisation of more than 113,000 SMEs in the country: an unprecedented digitisation effort. At the same time, investing in training and skills development becomes crucial to prepare the workforce for the introduction and corporate use of Generative AI solutions. In fact, Italy would lack 3.7 million employees with basic digital skills and 137 thousand students in ICT degree courses to enable the implementation of Generative AI solutions in the Italian economy.
In this new context, increasing digital skills and digitising companies becomes crucial. The potential estimated by the impact model developed by The European House - Ambrosetti is, in fact, an upper limit of the productivity increase that can result from the extensive adoption of Generative AI technologies in the coming years. The real economic and productive effects will instead be determined by the interaction between a series of variables on which policymakers and business leaders will have to play a fundamental role. Fully grasping the opportunities of Generative AI is not only necessary to unlock productivity and counteract the adverse effects of an ageing population, but is also indispensable to maintain high international competitiveness. Failure to exploit its potential will not only be a wasted opportunity but, on the contrary, will place Italy in difficulty in a global competitive landscape that will be increasingly shaped by the pervasive spread of this technology.